Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are facing upward resistance and US Federal Reserve’s policy will continue to determine prices in the near-term, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold witnessed a sharp but short-lived rebound following the interim US-Iran peace agreement, with prices briefly testing the 200-day moving average near $4,380/oz before retreating to around $4,050/oz, a decline of nearly 7.5% from the recent peak. The correction was driven by increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, a stronger US dollar, and rising Treasury yields.CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25-bps rate hike in July rising to over 36% from 8.5% a week earlier, while expectations of additional tightening by year-end also increased.The US dollar index climbed to its strongest level since May 2025, while mixed signals from the Middle East, firmer Eurozone data, weaker Chinese growth indicators, and higher inflation readings in Japan added to market volatility.In India, physical gold demand remained subdued as seasonal weakness weighed on jewellery purchases, while bar, coin, and digital gold buying also moderated. Gold imports cooled following the duty hike but remained higher on a year-on-year basis. Investment demand softened as Indian gold ETFs recorded record outflows in May amid profit-taking, although inflows resumed in June. Globally, ETF holdings continued to see net outflows, while central bank purchases slowed after a strong buying phase earlier in the year, reducing an important source of support for bullion prices.Technical Levels & Near-Term OutlookGold (Spot) CMP: $4,090/oz
- Support: $4,000 / $3850
- Resistance: $4,300 / $4,380
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,45,400
- Support: Rs 1,42,400,/ Rs 1,37,000
- Resistance: Rs 1,52,900 / Rs 1,55,800
Gold Price Outlook
Gold remains vulnerable to testing the key $4,000/oz support level and may even slide further as markets continue to price in a more restrictive US monetary policy outlook. While some institutions still project prices could rise toward $4,800/oz in late 2026 under a prolonged pause in interest rates, a more aggressive tightening cycle involving three to four additional rate hikes could see gold retreat toward $3,800/oz. The direction of US interest rates, dollar strength, ETF flows, and central bank demand will remain the key drivers of gold prices, keeping the near-term bias cautious to bearish. International Silver CMP: $61.90/oz
- Support: $60 / $58.50
- Resistance: $72.50/ $76.50
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,26,200
- Support: Rs 2,27,800/ Rs 2,17,000
- Resistance: Rs 2,56,250 / Rs 2,72,800
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
