MUMBAI: Reports that India is expected to see its driest monsoon in a decade spooked investors on Dalal Street on Friday. In late trades, sensex fell sharply to close nearly 1,100 points (1.4%) lower at 74,776 points. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries contributed the most to the day’s fall in the index, exchange data showed.The rebalancing of the MSCI EM Index, for which a surge of selling came during the last hour of trade, also aggravated selling.The session’s four-figure points fall came despite the rupee strengthening against the dollar and crude oil prices slipping. Since the war in West Asia started on Feb 28, sensex’s movement has largely been directly related to the strength of the rupee and indirectly to oil prices.
According to Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments, the late selling was broad-based following IMD’s monsoon forecast at about 90% of the long period average (LPA). “The prospect of deficient rainfall, coupled with the increasing likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern, has heightened fears of elevated food inflation in the coming months. However, the downside risk appears partially mitigated by the recent moderation in crude oil prices and bond yields.“Global sentiment was supportive of stock prices over expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the US, leading to a rally in international markets.“In the near term, investor attention is expected to shift toward the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision and GDP data release (both on June 5),” Nair said.
